Dynamics of Integration between Chinese and International Waste Paper Markets

ABSTRACT

China is the largest importer of waste paper in the world and is highly dependent on the international market. Thus, the relationship between Chinese and international waste paper markets affects the supply of fiber materials in China’s paper industry. This study examined the dynamic relationship between the two markets and the impact of newly implemented policies on both markets. We used unit root tests, cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM) and frequency-domain Granger causality test to investigate the integration between Chinese and international waste paper markets and identify which of the two markets is the price leader. The results revealed that the two markets were integrated after controlling for structural breaks, and the Chinese market acted as the price leader. Since the supply of waste paper and wood pulp is insufficient in China to meet the fiber demand of the paper industry, waste paper import restrictions have significantly affected the supply of fiber materials in China’s paper industry. Therefore, the Chinese government should fully consider the benefit of market integration and make full use of international waste paper resources to satisfy the large domestic demand for paper products.     

Development of a linear mixed-effects individual-tree basal area increment model for masson pine in Hunan Province,South-central China

ABSTRACT

An individual-tree basal area increment model was developed for masson pine based on 26276 observations of 13,138 trees in 987 sample plots from the 7th (2004), 8th (2009), and 9th (2014) Chinese National Forest Inventory in Hunan Province, South-central China. The model was built using a linear mixed-effects approach with sample plots included as random effects since the data have a hierarchical stochastic structure and biased estimates of the standard error of parameter estimates could be a consequence of applying ordinary least square (OLS) for regression. In addition, within-plot heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation were also considered. The final mixed-effects model was determined according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), log-likelihood (Loglik), and the likelihoodratio test (LRT). The results revealed that initial diameter (DBH), the sum of the basal area (m²/ha) in trees with DBHs larger than the DBH of the subject tree (BAL), number of trees per hectare (NT), and elevation (EL) had a significant impact on individual-tree basal area increment. The mixed-effects model performed much better than the basic model produced using OLS. Additionally, the variance structure of the model errors was successfully modeled using the power function. However, the autocorrelation structures were not defined because there was no autocorrelation amongst the data. It is believed that the final model will contribute to the scientific management of the masson pine.     

玉米大豆间作种植密度耦合数学模型及其优化方案研究

云南省大豆的种植主要以与玉米间作为主,适宜的种植密度是获得高产的前提,为研究种植密度对群体产量和经济产值的影响,找到最佳种植密度组合。采用二次饱和D-最优设计,分别在云南嵩明县（A）、会泽县（B）和鲁甸县（C）等3个点进行试验。研究了玉米和大豆种植密度对群体产量和经济产值的影响,并分别建立二元二次数学模型。结果表明：玉米和大豆密度对间作群体产量和经济产值影响显著,均呈凸抛物线型变化,在低密度水平下,群体产量和经济产值随密度的增加而增加。通过模型解析表明,玉米+大豆密度组合分别为64 110株/hm ²+147 013株/hm ²（A）、63 068株/hm ²+147 116株/hm ²（B）、64 059株/hm ²+145 077株/hm ²（C）时,各试验点可分别达到最高群体产量。玉米+大豆密度组合分别为62 909株/hm ²+149 852株/hm ²（A）、61 499株/hm ²+151 807株/hm ²（B）、62 762株/hm ²+147 108株/hm ²（C）时,各试验点可分别达到最高产值。经模拟得出,在本试验条件下,各试验点玉米大豆间作群体产量≥12 270kg/hm ²、经济产值≥24 000元/hm ²的最佳密度组合分别为玉米59 251~66 437株/hm ²、大豆140 075~161 495株/hm ²（A）,玉米58 927~65 366株/hm ²、大豆144 159~169 203株/hm ²（B）,玉米58 821~66 703株/hm ²、大豆139 315~154 886株/hm ²（C）。合理的密度搭配能有效提高群体产量,获得较高经济产值。     

Rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence: seed source and spatial pattern

A programme of field trials for the study of the winter barley–Rhynchosporium commune pathosystem is reported. The associated seedborne disease rhynchosporium leaf scald is regarded as having an important impact on barley yields. The analysis in this study relates to the impact of the seed source (commercial or farm-saved seed) on disease incidence and to the spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence. Disease incidence data were calculated from field data recorded as disease severity. Mean disease incidence was higher in the crops grown from farm-saved seed than in those grown from commercial seed, although great agronomic significance cannot be attached to this result. The spatial pattern of rhynchosporium leaf scald disease incidence was characterized in terms of the binary power law (BPL) and was indicative of an aggregated pattern. Programme-wide BPL results were described using a novel phytopathological application of a random coefficients model. These results have application in field sampling for rhynchosporium leaf scald disease.     

都市餐饮企业的净菜需求影响因素分析——以北京市为例

净菜的广泛使用能提高餐饮企业的出餐率,减少其后厨面积、劳动用工和厨余垃圾。基于北京地区708份餐饮企业净菜需求的问卷调查样本,运用垄断竞争市场理论和二元选择模型分析了影响餐饮企业净菜使用行为的具体因素。研究发现,对净菜了解程度不够和净菜价格偏高是制约餐饮企业使用净菜的主要因素,具有不同个体特征和环境特征的餐饮企业选择净菜的倾向性不同。建议在餐饮业大力开展净菜宣传科普工作;大力扶持净菜加工企业和发展相关技术支撑体系以降低净菜价格。     

PBL模式《小动物透明标本制作与技术改良》建设与教学探索

《小动物透明标本制作与技术改良》课程引入国际流行的PBL(Problem based learning)教学模式,通过教师引导,学生自主学习、讨论制定实验方案,主动动手操作,并总结汇报实验成果的教学流程,探讨小动物透明标本的制作方法及技术改良手段,以及创新性实验课程的开设模式。教学实践表明:基于PBL的实验教学模式不仅使学生自主操作改良了小动物透明标本的制作方案,更大大的提高了学生的学习积极性,进而科普并巩固了动物解剖学的专业基础知识。     

副车架疲劳载荷分析方法

结合LMSTWR软件,详细介绍了基于混合路面的轮心位移反求法求取副车架载荷谱的方法。通过在某MPV上布置合适传感器,在试验场测得道路载荷谱信号。根据实测的数据,建立整车多体动力学模型。基于处理后的道路载荷谱与多体动力学模型进行虚拟迭代,并进行副车架载荷分解。结果表明,迭代仿真得到的信号与试验值吻合度较好。     

Influence of larval transport and temperature on recruitment dynamics of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) across spatial scales of observation

The survival of fish eggs and larvae, and therefore recruitment success, can be critically affected by transport in ocean currents. Combining a model of early‐life stage dispersal with statistical stock–recruitment models, we investigated the role of larval transport for recruitment variability across spatial scales for the population complex of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). By using a coupled physical–biological model, we estimated the egg and larval transport over a 44‐year period. The oceanographic component of the model, capable of capturing the interannual variability of temperature and ocean current patterns, was coupled to the biological component, an individual‐based model (IBM) that simulated the cod eggs and larvae development and mortality. This study proposes a novel method to account for larval transport and success in stock–recruitment models: weighting the spawning stock biomass by retention rate and, in the case of multiple populations, their connectivity. Our method provides an estimate of the stock biomass contributing to recruitment and the effect of larval transport on recruitment variability. Our results indicate an effect, albeit small, in some populations at the local level. Including transport anomaly as an environmental covariate in traditional stock–recruitment models in turn captures recruitment variability at larger scales. Our study aims to quantify the role of larval transport for recruitment across spatial scales, and disentangle the roles of temperature and larval transport on effective connectivity between populations, thus informing about the potential impacts of climate change on the cod population structure in the North Sea.     

Technical efficiency of different farm sizes for tilapia farming in China

China is the world's largest tilapia producer. This study uses the stochastic frontier function in the Cobb–Douglas model to evaluate a production frontier for tilapia aquaculture and analyses the relationship between farm size and production efficiency in China. A random sample of 300 tilapia farmers was surveyed in the main tilapia‐producing areas to study their economic efficiencies. The percentage distribution of tilapia farm technical efficiency was determined, with an average efficiency of 79%, which showed that the sample tilapia farmers operate at 21% below the production frontier and hence that they still have a chance to achieve targeted yields. The technical efficiencies of two categories (≤1 ha and >1 ha) were 78.82% and 79.27% respectively. A second‐stage analysis investigated the relationship between farm size and technical efficiency and showed a positive relationship between farm size and production efficiency based on the ordinary least‐squares model. The optimal farm size was found to be 7.50 ha. This study proposes strategies such as enlarging the farming scale moderately, thereby achieving the advantage of economies of scale, and enhancing the competitiveness of the tilapia industry in China.     

土地规模化经营对农业生态效率影响及城乡市场分割调节作用探析

土地规模化经营是农业生态效率改善的重要动力,但土地规模化经营作用农业生态效率受到城乡市场分割的门槛调节。该研究借助2001—2017年全国30个地区(因数据缺失,西藏及港澳台地区未涵盖,下同)面板数据,运用面板门槛模型,就城乡市场分割调节土地规模化经营作用农业生态效率过程展开研究。结果表明:(1)我国农业生态效率总体向好,但地区间差异悬殊;(2)土地规模化经营驱动农业生态效率改善,但存在城乡市场分割门槛调节,弱市场分割地区土地规模化经营促进农业生态效率,强市场分割地区作用相反;(3)城乡市场分割调节土地规模化经营作用农业生态效率主要通过限制农产品、劳动力、资本城乡合理流动,削弱农业新型经营主体绿色农业发展意愿和能力途径展开;(4)我国多数地区城乡市场分割水平偏高,区域发展中城市资源偏向和工业优先发展突出,需进行及时改革。该研究可为政府制定绿色农业发展策略提供参考依据。